Stock exchange information
            
The website of CUNEF presents this section dedicated to the Stock Exchange and to the evolution of the prices of listed stocks forming part of the IBEX 35 index. A table will be published daily with the daily forecasts of the quotations of certain stocks in the IBEX 35. The table will be enlarged little by little to include all the stocks in the IBEX 35. The forecasts are made by fourth year students of the Business Administration Degree under the guidance and supervision of Professor Rafael Flores de Frutos, Full Professor of Econometrics of the Complutense University of Madrid and Professor of CUNEF.

Every day, prior to the start of the trading session, our forecasts of the high, low and closing price in that of each stock trading session will be published. The same table will provide: a recommended buying price and a recommended selling price for that trading session.

Recommended prices are calculated to minimise the risk of failure of the transaction (buy today and sell tomorrow), that is to say, the probability of not being able to sell at the recommended selling price during the trading session after buying at the recommended buying price during the previous trading session. In the same manner, the recommended prices are calculated to maximise the probability of success in the transaction, that is to say, the probability of being able to sell at a profit in a trading session after buying during the previous trading session.

Abbreviations:

Abengoa (ABG)
Acciona (ANA)
ACS (ACS)
Banco de Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA)
Banco Santander (SAN)
Grifols (GRF)  
Indra (IDR)
Repsol (REP)
Telefónica (TEF)

For each stock and for each day, the table provides the following information for the stocks analysed in the study:

1. The lowest quote in the last 60 trading sessions (e.g. ABGm)
2. The highest quote in the last 60 trading sessions (e.g. ABGM)
3. Highest quote if the date is before today’s date, or highest forecast quote if the date is today’s date. (MAX)
4. Lowest quote if the date is before today’s date, or lowest forecast quote if the date is today’s date. (MIN)
5. Latest quote, if the date is before today’s date, or forecast closing quote if the date is today’s date. (LAST)
6. Recommended buying price (BP)
7. Recommended selling price (SP (T))
8. Annual return from 5/10/2007 to date, of the transaction: buy during the current trading session at the recommended buying price and sell in the following trading session at the recommended selling price
9. Risk of failure of the transaction (Risk)
10. Probability of buying at recommended price (Pbb)
11. Probability of selling at the recommended price (Pbs)
12. Probability of successful transaction (Pbsb)

Note:
This document is not an offer or recommendation to buy or to sell or to carry out any other transaction. No information contained in this report should be interpreted as assessment or advice. It can only be understood to be the result of an academic exercise performed by students of CUNEF.

STOCK EXCHANGE FORECASTS

FECHA	ABGm	ABGM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	15.01	18.15	15.83	15.01	15.14	15.74	15.85	40	27	49	73
17/02/2012	15.01	18.15	15.45	15.09	15.24	14.84	15.68	40	27	49	73
20/02/2012	15.01	18.15	15.66	15.32	15.66	14.99	15.25	40	27	49	73
21/02/2012	15.01	18.15	15.65	15.24	15.48	15.53	15.56	40	27	49	73
22/02/2012	15.01	18.15	15.76	15.19	15.50	15.19	15.59	40	27	49	73
FECHA	ANAm	ANAM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	60.00	71.15	61.99	61.13	61.29	61.47	62.19	39	25	60	75
17/02/2012	60.00	71.15	62.22	60.96	61.79	61.33	61.67	39	25	60	75
20/02/2012	60.00	71.15	62.31	61.58	61.94	61.41	61.66	39	25	60	75
21/02/2012	60.00	71.15	62.25	61.00	61.78	61.54	61.41	39	25	60	75
22/02/2012	60.00	71.15	62.48	61.32	62.05	61.32	61.78	39	25	60	75
FECHA	ACSm	ACSM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	21.32	25.10	23.14	22.56	23.01	22.90	23.09	45	27	48	73
17/02/2012	21.32	25.10	23.68	23.15	23.42	22.79	23.07	45	27	48	73
20/02/2012	21.89	25.10	23.85	23.44	23.75	23.22	23.38	45	27	48	73
21/02/2012	21.89	25.10	24.09	23.57	23.61	23.49	23.56	45	27	48	73
22/02/2012	21.89	25.10	23.81	23.28	23.54	23.28	23.51	45	27	48	73
FECHA	BBVAm	BBVAM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	5.44	7.35	6.89	6.71	6.80	7.04	7.08	73	35	55	65
17/02/2012	5.44	7.35	6.94	6.86	6.90	6.75	6.95	73	35	55	65
20/02/2012	5.67	7.35	7.10	6.96	7.10	6.84	6.87	73	35	55	65
21/02/2012	5.81	7.35	7.17	6.96	7.07	7.02	7.05	73	35	55	65
22/02/2012	5.81	7.35	7.14	7.01	7.07	7.01	7.11	73	35	55	65
FECHA	SANm	SANM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	5.08	6.65	6.35	6.13	6.29	6.37	6.38	46	31	48	69
17/02/2012	5.08	6.65	6.47	6.37	6.41	6.20	6.38	46	31	48	69
20/02/2012	5.29	6.65	6.58	6.47	6.57	6.36	6.36	46	30	48	70
21/02/2012	5.36	6.65	6.63	6.45	6.55	6.49	6.49	46	30	48	70
22/02/2012	5.36	6.65	6.60	6.45	6.56	6.45	6.54	46	30	48	70
FECHA	GRFm	GRFM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	10.95	15.57	14.41	14.98	15.02	15.23	15.32	24	30	44	70
17/02/2012	10.95	15.57	15.29	15.04	15.10	15.07	15.23	23	30	44	70
20/02/2012	11.22	15.63	15.63	15.16	15.39	14.86	15.08	23	30	44	70
21/02/2012	11.29	15.63	15.38	15.11	15.18	15.18	15.32	23	30	44	70
22/02/2012	11.31	15.63	15.45	15.07	15.34	15.07	15.25	23	30	44	70
FECHA	IDRm	IDRM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	9.63	11.19	10.40	10.21	10.38	10.35	10.42	46	28	53	72
17/02/2012	9.63	11.19	11.00	10.46	10.88	10.33	10.42	46	28	53	72
20/02/2012	9.63	11.19	11.00	10.88	11.00	10.74	10.90	46	28	53	72
21/02/2012	9.63	11.19	11.00	10.86	10.90	10.90	10.95	46	28	53	72
22/02/2012	9.63	11.19	10.95	10.83	10.90	10.83	10.93	46	28	53	72
FECHA	REPm	REPM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	19.57	24.23	20.56	20.24	20.47	20.46	20.81	45	26	52	74
17/02/2012	19.57	24.23	20.94	20.58	20.70	20.32	20.57	45	26	52	74
20/02/2012	20.22	24.23	21.09	20.86	20.98	20.57	20.67	45	26	52	74
21/02/2012	20.22	24.23	21.06	20.67	20.88	20.82	20.89	45	26	52	74
22/02/2012	20.22	24.23	21.05	20.69	20.85	20.69	20.94	45	26	52	74
FECHA	TEFm	TEFM	MAX	MIN	ULT	PC	PV	Rto(%)	Rgo(%)	Pbc(%)	Pbvc(%)
16/02/2012	12.60	14.25	13.00	12.75	12.87	12.95	13.00	37	44	48	56
17/02/2012	12.60	14.25	13.12	12.96	13.05	12.80	12.98	37	44	48	56
20/02/2012	12.74	14.25	13.26	13.08	13.26	12.97	13.01	37	44	48	56
21/02/2012	12.74	14.25	13.36	13.08	13.18	13.17	13.19	37	44	48	56
22/02/2012	12.74	14.25	13.28	13.09	13.21	13.09	13.28	37	44	48	56